Brazil closes September with record beef exports and a steady domestic market — setting the tone for October’s outlook.
Brazil’s beef industry ended September 2025 with remarkable momentum. According to Poder360 and FPAbramo, exports of fresh beef reached 314,700 tons, a 25.1% increase compared to the same month last year — marking an all-time record for the country. This surge came even as the United States imposed a 76.4% tariff on Brazilian beef earlier this year (50% in addition to the previous rate of 26.4%), a move that could have crippled the sector if not for the country’s rapid adaptation to new markets.
Record Exports Amid Global Headwinds
Rather than slowing down, Brazil’s beef exporters found new ways to thrive. With strong demand from China, Mexico, and Middle Eastern markets, Brazilian companies diversified destinations and reduced reliance on the U.S. market.
According to analysts quoted by FPAbramo, the resilience stems from Brazil’s competitive advantages: year-round pasture conditions, a large national herd, and increasingly sophisticated production systems that maintain quality while keeping costs low.
Industry experts highlight that even with tariff challenges, Brazil’s global leadership in beef exports remains unshaken. September’s export revenues surpassed previous highs, reinforcing the country’s role as a cornerstone in the world’s protein supply chain.
Domestic Market: Stable Prices and Controlled Supply
While exports broke records, the domestic cattle market showed signs of stabilization after months of price pressure. According to Canal Rural, the average price for a finished steer (boi gordo) began to recover slightly in late September. Still, slaughterhouses maintain comfortable supply levels, keeping prices from surging sharply.
Brazil’s strong export performance also helps sustain internal prices by balancing domestic supply. However, demand within Brazil remains cautious, affected by high living costs and limited consumer spending power. Analysts from Canal Rural and Cepea note that this equilibrium — firm exports and moderate domestic consumption — has provided a steady environment for producers heading into October.
October Outlook: Moderate Optimism on Exports and Prices
As October begins, expectations across the beef sector are cautiously optimistic. Exporters anticipate another strong month, though perhaps below the September record, as global buyers adjust their inventories. China is expected to remain the main destination, while other markets like Egypt, Chile, and the Philippines are gaining importance.
Domestically, ranchers are watching how seasonal factors — such as early rains and pasture recovery — will affect cattle supply and feed costs. If pasture conditions improve, more producers may delay sales, which could tighten short-term supply and sustain price recovery.
At the same time, economic indicators point to stable demand from Brazilian consumers, with limited room for significant domestic price hikes. The focus, therefore, remains on export channels as the main driver of profitability.
During the dry season, October futures contracts for live cattle reached nearly R$350 per arroba (15 kg, or 33 lb, of beef carcass), reflecting strong market expectations at the time. However, current prices are hovering around R$311, underscoring the volatility of the market and the importance of using hedging strategies to lock in profitable selling prices. Producers who understand and apply these tools — as discussed here — can better protect their margins and ensure greater financial stability throughout the production cycle.
A Turning Point for Brazil’s Beef Sector
The combination of record exports, resilient pricing, and expanding market access underscores Brazil’s growing sophistication in beef production and trade. While trade tensions with the U.S. highlighted vulnerabilities, they also accelerated innovation and market diversification.
Producers and analysts agree: Brazil’s ability to sustain growth amid global uncertainty reflects both efficiency and adaptability. If October maintains the positive momentum seen in September, 2025 could close as one of the most successful years ever for Brazilian beef — a message that resonates strongly with global importers seeking reliable and scalable protein sources.
