Brazil beef exports expected to grow 12–14% in 2025, driven by new markets and pressure to revise U.S. tariffs; further growth anticipated in 2026.
Brazil is preparing for a strong surge in beef export growth in 2025, with projections pointing to a 12–14% increase in volume. Analysts anticipate momentum will carry forward into 2026, supported by market diversification and ongoing diplomatic efforts to mitigate punitive U.S. tariffs. For Brazil’s beef producers and exporters, this period marks both risk and opportunity.
A turnaround in Brazil’s beef export outlook
According to ABIEC (Brazilian Association of Meat Exporters), 2025 is expected to bring a 12–14% rise in beef export volumes over 2024. This forecast is underpinned by growing demand abroad and a push by Brazilian industry to offset losses caused by U.S. import barriers.
Datagro, a respected agribusiness intelligence firm, projects that by 2026, nearly 39.3% of Brazil’s beef production may be destined for international markets — up from current levels. This suggests that export growth is not a temporary spike, but part of a structural shift.
U.S. tariffs: political motives and economic pain
In mid-2025, the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods including beef, citing allegations that Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court, especially Justice Alexandre de Moraes, was conducting a “witch hunt” against former president Jair Bolsonaro. These measures are widely seen in Brazil as political retaliation rather than standard trade policy.
These tariffs severely impact certain Brazilian beef export contracts, especially those structured around U.S. market access. ABIEC has repeatedly stated that many current contracts must be renegotiated; for some cuts of meat, the tariffs render exports economically unviable.
However, Brazil has complained that these U.S. demands (which implicitly ask Brazil to interfere in its independent judiciary) are constitutionally impossible to comply with, as they would require halting or altering ongoing trials — something incompatible with judicial independence under Brazil’s constitution.
How Brazil plans to grow exports despite headwinds
Brazilian producers and export associations aren’t standing still. To reach the projected 12-14% growth in 2025 and further increase in 2026, several avenues are being pursued:
- Market diversification: With the U.S. tariffs in place, Brazil is increasing its exports to places like China, Mexico, the EU, Japan, Korea, and the Middle East. Mexico, for example, has surged in imports of Brazilian beef in recent months (read more here).
- Negotiations and diplomacy: ABIEC and the Brazilian government are engaging with U.S. importers, U.S. government contacts, and trade bodies to try to negotiate a rollback or reduction of tariffs. Producers argue that the punitive tariffs damage both exporters and U.S. consumers who benefit from Brazilian beef supply.
- Exploiting trade agreements / habilitation to export: Brazil is leveraging its existing habilitations to export beef and expanding access by meeting sanitary and quality requirements to access premium markets. Also, Brazil is trying to position itself favorably in agreements like EU-Mercosur (even though those have obstacles) and looking at trade reciprocity tools (e.g. legal provisions that allow countermeasures in face of unfair trade treatment).
- Flexibility in product mix and pricing: Some cuts of beef remain competitive even with tariffs. Producers are shifting focus toward those, or adjusting pricing and cost structures to maintain margins in spite of the added duties.
The controversy: politics, justice, and economic consequences
The U.S. justification for the tariffs is heavily political. President Trump and U.S. government figures have repeatedly accused the Brazilian Supreme Court, especially Justice Alexandre de Moraes, of pursuing politically-motivated prosecutions against Bolsonaro and his allies. These accusations include claims of violation of free speech, arbitrary detentions, and judicial overreach.
Brazil government firmly rejects these allegations in many statements, asserting that its legal system is following constitutional due process. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has defended the Supreme Court’s independence and said that democracy and sovereignty are not negotiable.
Most producers and exporters of beef, while affected by tariffs, are not aligned with anti-market or brazilian authoritarian political agendas. They argue that they are the hardest hit by the current measures. They want open trade, transparency, and predictability. Many have publicly stated their opposition to economic interference, whether from foreign governments or domestic institutions, when it undermines contractual certainty. Negotiation is seen as the only viable path forward.
What to expect in 2026 and beyond
Looking ahead to 2026, if Brazil continues to open up new markets, maintain export quality, and succeed in reducing or removing some U.S. tariffs, export growth could exceed the 2025 forecast. The Datagro projection of almost 40% of production going abroad suggests strong structural growth.
However, several risks remain:
- Continued political tensions with the U.S., especially if accusations and sanctions escalate.
- Uncertainty in global demand (e.g. trade wars, economic downturns) that may reduce appetite or raise competition (from Australia, India, etc.).
- Sanitary or logistical hurdles that often constrain high-volume beef export (cold chain, transportation, inspection).
Brazil’s beef export sector appears to be on the verge of a robust expansion. Despite punitive U.S. tariffs tied to political conflict — framed by some in Washington as punishment for the Brazilian judiciary’s action against political figures — producers are adapting. By diversifying markets, negotiating diplomatic relief, and optimizing product lines, Brazil might achieve 12-14% export growth in 2025, with 2026 offering even greater potential, assuming global demand holds and political pressure subsides.
For international buyers, this means Brazilian beef will likely become more present outside the U.S., with competitive prices in non-tariffed channels. For Brazilian stakeholders, the battle is both commercial and political — and its outcome could redefine Brazil’s role in global beef trade
